Energy truce could play into the hands of Russia: ISW explained the risks for Ukraine

President США Дональдом Трампом's proposed moratorium on oil refineries strikes could limit Ukraine's ability to attack Russian energy infrastructure, but would not guarantee the protection of Ukrainian power plants

This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Why the proposed conditions may be more favorable to Russia

Analysts draw attention to the fact that Russia has dozens of operating oil refineries, while only one works in Ukraine. Therefore, a moratorium on strikes on НПЗ can significantly limit Kiev’s ability to attack the Russian energy infrastructure.

At the same time, the initial version of the proposal does not provide for the protection of the entire energy infrastructure of Ukraine. According to ISW, this may allow Russian troops to continue to attack Ukrainian power plants during the winter period.

Thus, Ukraine risks taking on the limitations of strikes on important energy facilities of Russia, without receiving equivalent security guarantees for its own power system.

What we know about Trump’s proposal

11 October Trump said about the allegedly reached agreement between Ukraine and Russia on "енергетичного перемир'я". According to him, the parties had to stop attacks on the energy infrastructure. However, Зеленський denied information about the achievement of an agreement with Moscow, while confirming Kiev's readiness to support the truce, provided that Russia also ceases attacks.

Later, the White House clarified that the initial proposal concerned a moratorium on strikes on oil refineries, and the protection of power plants and power grids can be considered at the next stage.

As of 12 October, Ukraine and Russia have not concluded a formal agreement to stop strikes on energy infrastructure. Despite discussions on a possible truce, Russian troops continued to attack Ukrainian energy facilities.

Володимир Зеленський reported that only 12 October was attacked by the Russians 6 Ukrainian energy facilities. At the same time that night, the Ukrainian military did not strike at the energy infrastructure of Russia.