Trump's Three Plans
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To begin with, let’s agree: if you live in a world where agent Krasnov operates, terrible compromises of Putin on Trump and other conspiracy, do not read further, save yourself nerves, and free me from stupid comments
If you are interested in my version, whether there are rational reasons for the current not too moral and illogical (likely) Trump behavior, then I will try to formulate it.
So, Trump came to office with the obvious understanding that the main obstacle to the idea of MAGA is China. The growth of its economy and military capabilities, geopolitical expansion, in particular, in Africa, the Arctic and other regions where rare earth metals are mined (without which there is no future in modern energy), the obvious obsession with Taiwan, on whose microchips all the way to the open.
At first, everything seemed simple, because China, unlike the previous antipode, СРСР, is extremely dependent on the free world markets - США and ЄС. But the first attempt to fight China with high duties was unsuccessful. Сі Цзіньпін immediately reacted, limiting США access to rare earths.
Then he began to implement his plan B: to achieve the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war to gain access to rare earths in both countries and get rid of dependence on China.
As we all know, this plan failed - Putin’s unwillingness to compromise, the success of ЗСУ and Zelensky’s stubbornness (with the support of Europe) forced him to retreat.
Then plan C went into action: oil. Trump does not hide too much that the change of power in Venezuela and Iran plus actual control over Hormuz would give him control of two-thirds of the world's oil production and a serious leverage over the Chinese.
See also: The logic of Дональда Трампа
And the first half of the plan was implemented very successfully. And the second initially looked like this - the military operation was mega effective. But the regime of the Ayatollah held, and Trump stopped and did not bring the matter to an end, frightened by high fuel prices.
Наразі йому здається, що простіше буде повернутися до плану В й змусити Зеленського до компромісу, який досі сприймався українською владою як неприйнятний.
I do not know how long he is ready to put pressure on Ukraine, given both the unkindness of the press and the protests from Congress. I think we should try to stick to it (although no one knows what escalation Trump is still able to resort to). If we endure, he will be forced to return to the Iranian campaign.
P.S. Sorry for not being sentimental and complaining about injustice. I am really convinced that politics is driven by interests, not morality (they just sometimes coincide). By the way, we are no exception here.
About the author. Карл Волох, political analyst, blogger.
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs.
